Oilseed Market Trends

Growth Drivers

• High nutritional value- Oilseeds contain significant amounts process of essential nutrients, including minerals, oil, vitamins, fatty acids, protein, and fiber. In 2023, the Food and Agriculture Organization in their report stated that oilseed covers a large amount of global protein meal output, which is estimated to witness a growth of about 0.9% each year and is predicted to surpass 405 metric tons by 2032. Furthermore, the nutrient-dense pulp that is left over after oilseeds are extracted is converted into oilcake or meals to feed dairy farm animals.

• Global increase in oilseed trade- Of all agricultural commodities, vegetable oil accounts for a trade share of 41.0%. Indonesia and Malaysia, the leading suppliers of palm oil, are projected to continue to dominate the vegetable oil trade by exporting over 70% of their combined production and collectively capturing approximately 60% of global exports. India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, is anticipated to maintain its high import CAGR of 3.4%.  According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), in 2022 the countries with the largest oilseed export trade value were Ukraine (USD 5.53 billion), Russia (USD 3.0 billion), Argentina (USD 1.51 billion), Bulgaria (USD 1.17 billion), and Hungary (USD 849 million). The countries that had the largest import trade value include India (USD 2.85 billion), Iraq (USD 832 million), Italy (USD 780 million), China (USD 733 million), and Germany (USD 559 million).
  
  Over 42% of global soybean production is traded internationally, which constitutes a key ingredient for protein meal. In 2023-2024, several factors eased global soybean and protein meal availability.First, a rebound in Argentina's soybean production facilitated crush to return to normal levels. Furthermore, record Brazil soybean meal exports and rising U.S. crush production increased global exportable supplies and lowed meal prices. The expansion in Mexico livestock industry has fueled demand for protein meals in 2023-2024. This boosted the country’s soybean meal imports by 24%. The 2024-2025 outlook is bound by many of the same fundamentals. High Brazil soybean production and U.S. soybean crush are expected to continue to grow as compared to other agricultural commodities.

• Rising government initiatives- Local governments are stepping up to influence oilseed production and reduce expensive vegetable oil imports. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization in 2023, about 2/3^rd of the global soybean production was done by the U.S., which accounts for about 80% of the soybean export worldwide.

Challenges

• Decrease in oilseed plantation- A reduction in oilseed plantation leads to decreased supply of oilseeds. This scarcity can drive up prices if demand remains constant or increases, thus impacting overall market growth. This impact has broader implications for economic stability, sustainability, and industry innovation, all of which are crucial for the long-term growth of the oilseed market.

• Issues in meeting the demand- The demand for edible oil are surpassing the oilseed production rates. Because of the competing demands of different crops on agricultural land, demand for oilseed production can only be met if productivity rises and farmers earn substantially better prices for their produce. At the global level, palm oil supplies are projected to expand at an annual rate of 1.3%. Increasingly stringent environmental policies from the major importers of palm oil and sustainable agricultural norms (e.g. in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development) are expected to slow the expansion of the oil palm area in Indonesia and Malaysia. This implies that growth in production comes increasingly from productivity improvements, including an acceleration of replanting activities. These two countries account for more than one-third of the world’s vegetable oil production.