Global Market Size, Forecast, and Trend Highlights Over 2025-2037
Solar PV Market size was valued at USD 397.65 billion in 2024 and is poised to cross USD 7.08 trillion by the end of 2037, expanding at more than 25% CAGR during the forecast period i.e., between 2025-2037. In 2025, the industry size of solar PV is assessed at USD 476.54 billion.
Photovoltaic manufacturing capacity moved from the U.S., Europe, and Japan to China in the past few decades. China has invested more than USD 50 billion in its domestic PV production and supply capacity - ten times more than Europe. Presently, China’s production share of all PV components exceeds 80% and is expected to reach 95% during the forecast period.
Solar power has transitioned from an emerging and niche technology to a mature and mainstream industry over the past decade. By the end of 2035, solar power is projected to supply 40% of U.S. electricity demand, thereby, accelerating the decarbonization of transportation, construction, and manufacturing industries. Solar energy adoption has the potential to yield workforce development and economic growth. The industry currently employs over 230,000 people in the U.S., at an average wage equivalent to the national average for comparable positions and the U.S. solar industry is likely to employ 500,000-1500,000 individuals by 2030.
Various factors shape the impact of resilience measures on PV projects. Module capital expenditure and capacity factors significantly impact project development costs. China produces PV modules at lower costs than other economies. This results from a local material sourcing, highly integrated, and largely consolidated domestic supply chain. Moreover, the manufacturers in the country operate on low electricity rates and subsidized land and factory infrastructure. The primary threat to the cost competitiveness of U.S. and European PV producers is energy prices that weigh heavily as compared to China's PV production market. To address this challenge, investments in R&I are set to accelerate the adoption of manufacturing technologies with better throughput and higher energy efficiency.
IEA reported that in 2023, around 446 GWdc of PV was deployed worldwide, bringing cumulative PV capacity addition so far to 1.6 TWdc. With China’s dominance in the global market, a whopping 60% of installations came from the country in 2023, while Italy and Germany showcased a 2x growth in installations. The rest of the world experienced a 30% y-o-y growth and the U.S. held the second-largest market share in terms of annual deployment and installations. Research Nester analysts project that cumulative global photovoltaic installations will reach up to 5 TWdc by 2030 and 15 TWdc by 2050. Mono c-Si technology-based PV shipments were 35% in 2015 and reached 98% in 2023, while n-type mono c-Si was 63% of total PV shipments, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 51% in 2022.
PV System and Component Pricing:
The median system costs of large-scale utility-owned photovoltaic systems in 2023 was USD 1.27/Wac (relatively flat since 2018) and the residential PV systems by median price as reported by EnergySage reached USD 2.8/Wdc, a 6.3% y-o-y surge. Global polysilicon spot prices in 2023 as of late April were USD 6.76/kg, which was a 22% drop from mid-January (USD 8.70/kg), thus, registering the lowest price observed over the last decade. The recent slump in module prices worldwide leveled off at USD 0.11/Wdc in Q1 2024. The U.S. average module price in Q4 2023 was USD 0.31/Wdc, representing a 5% q-o-q and 22% y-o-y decrease in the country module pricing.
