Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Insights: Global Production Trends, Trade Analysis, and Leading Companies 2025-2037

A top-down analysis of Polysilicon production

High-purity polysilicon is typically obtained by refining metallurgical-grade silicon, which is used to make solar wafers, silicones, semiconductors, and aluminum alloys. To ensure supply and purity levels MGS suppliers often backward integrate and own a significant portion of the quartz mines. Furthermore, MSG processing is typically energy-intensive, making it imperative to be produced in locations with abundant and affordable electricity sources such as Malaysia, Norway, the U.S., and the Xinjiang region of China. Presently, China dominates that market with over 70% of the worldwide MGS production capacity, and ten Chinese companies account for 35% of domestic capacity, whereas the top five hold approximately 25%.

Principal MGS manufacturing locations & production capacity (Thousand Metric Tonnes)

Source: the U.S. DOE

North America MGS production by top contenders (2022)

The primary use case of polysilicon is photovoltaic (comprising 80% of the demand) and the other is semiconductors and consumer electronics. Despite there being several polysilicon production techniques, two general approaches are ascribed to the largest market shares. The fluidized bed reactor (FBR) method accounts for 3%-5% of the market share and the Siemens chemical vapor deposition method holds a 90% share.  The Siemens process entails the passage of silane precursor or gaseous trichlorosilane (TCS) over the heated silicon filaments. Recovered compounds are further processed to synthesize polysilicon. Virtually all polysilicon manufacturing capacity lies within 10 countries, with China capturing 72% of the global capacity. 

The presence of key supplies in China is instrumental in determining component costs, including polysilicon. As per EIA, polysilicon prices increased threefold from USD 6.27/kg in June 2020 to USD 28.46/kg in June 2021. This is ascribed to a supply/demand imbalance owing to wafer and cell manufacturing capacity expansion. With polysilicon emerging as a critical bottleneck, downstream entities such as cells and wafer producers have been strategically stockpiling polysilicon supplies to meet the anticipated demand, largely driven by the proliferation of utility-scale deployment in China. Based on announced projects, polysilicon manufacturing is expected to double down in capacity over the next few years. Some of the new plants built have manufacturing capacities of 30,000-70,000 MT per year, and there are anticipated plans to build facilities with more than 100,000 MT capacities.

Chinese companies have been keen on lowering polysilicon prices by establishing manufacturing facilities and manufacturing in areas with affordable land, electricity, and laborcosts. Western provinces have a considerable build-out including Inner Mongolia, Quinghai, Sichuan, and especially, Xinjiang. It currently hosts China’s 54% and 39% of global production. Based on active projects till 2022 an estimate of China’s overall solar PV component yield is mentioned below.

China’s low labor costs and concentrated c-Si PV supply chain, have posed an entry barrier for other players. In the U.S. labor expenditure represents 22% of the manufacturing costs versus 8% in China, 36% of wafer manufacturing costs in the U.S. versus 23% in China, and 33% of cell manufacturing costs in the U.S. versus 8% in China.

c-Si and CdTe production and global trade:

More than 75% of the c-Si and CdTe modules imported by the U.S. in 2020 came from just three Southeast Asian countries- Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, and the remainder from South Korea. These Southeast Asian countries rely heavily on an upstream Chinese supply chain. The U.S. as of 2020 had limited silicon solar cell operating capacity.  However, the following upstream manufacturing in the U.S. gained traction and proved pivotal in the country’s surging solar demand. According to the SEIA, 8.6 GW worth of installation was completed in 2019, showcasing a 21% year-over-year growth.

Source: NRELupdate of (Smith et al. 2021)

Owing to gaps in the global PV supply chain such as high capital expenditure and labor costs, virtually all c-Si raw materials and components are imported to western nations from Southeast Asian countries. These import costs add around 11% to the total manufacturing expenses. A build-up in the domestic PV supply chain would significantly reduce these costs. There are pathways to cut down the cost delta with automation in wafer and ingot assembly lines. In February 2024, First Solar announced its plans to invest USD 10 billion in CdTe thin film in the United States. Retrospective figures from 2023 added USD 2.75 billion in value to the module production capacity, USD 900 million in economic value, and USD 2 billion in output.

Ingots and Wafers

Ten Chinese companies manufactured 98% of the overall solar wafers in 2020, of which three companies- LONGi, GCL, and Zhonghuan garnered 71% of the produced capacity. From 2016 to 2020, the abovementioned companies grew their collective capacity to 173 GWdc (58% of global capacity) from 29 GWdc (29% of global capacity). This trend was followed by the rapid growth in monocrystalline PV modules market share.

Furthermore, seven Chinese provinces were ascribed to 10 GWdc of wafer production capacity. Notably, Jiangsu, located in the north of Shanghai, accounted for 28% of China’s total wafer capacity, while outside of China, East Asia contributes 10 GWdc of global wafer capacity. China-based Jinko Solar announced its plans to build a 7 GWdc wafer and ingot facility in Vietnam. This aims at streamlining cell production operations in Malaysia and module assembly in the U.S. The company stated initiation of the project was made in 2020, to bypass U.S. trade restrictions on import materials. This strategic expansion underscores the company’s efforts to build a robust supply chain while navigating the changing trade dynamic.

Module and Cells

Since the implementation of new manufacturing tax credits, there has been a significant influx of investments to build and expand the entire solar module supply chain, including ingots, modules, wafers, and cells. Prior to the enactment of the federal manufacturing incentives, there was roughly 16.6GW or 41,500 MT/year polysilicon capacity and 7 GW/year of module capacity. Cell manufacturing was onshored for the first time since 2019, and it is expected that additional cell capacity will come online by the end of 2025. To date, there has been a steep growth in module production, climbing from 7 GW before the federal manufacturing tax credits to 44.4 GW in December 2024, marking a rise of over 500%.

The total U.S. module supply chain including operational, under-construction, and announced projects reached an estimated value of 81.6 GW. The establishment of PV module supply chain is a sluggish process due to conformance periods, permits, construction, and commissioning. The further up the supply chain ladder, the longer the building time. New factory expansions are anticipated to continue over the next several years.

India in 2022 was the only country to witness a major fall in imports from China, underpinning a fall of 76% or -7.5 GW y-o-y. A total slump of 9.8 GW from 2.3 GW was observed in the first half of 2022. Moreover, stringent government regulations including the imposition of tariffs resulted in a shift away from imports to domestic manufacturing capacity utilization. India’s local solar module production capacity has stepped up since then and India has set a benchmark in global solar module and panel exports Türkiye.

Despite the ongoing efforts to decouple from the reliance on China for component supplies, China’s solar panel export spiked by 34% in the first half of 2023. This is pivotal in meeting the high energy demand in Europe and South Africa. The rising focus in clean energy transition has further increased dependency on China’s solar exports. Out of the 90.4% export volume, Europe emerged as the biggest importer (58%), followed by Brazil receiving 9.5 GW of solar panels made in China in the first half of 2023. Africa is projected to witness the fastest import growth rate of 187% as the government is seeking ways to mitigate the rising energy crisis, while China is heavily capitalizing on the prevailing demand-supply gap.

China’s solar exports in the first half of 2023, share (%) in $ value terms

Source: Ember Energy

The exponential growth in the solar PV market is positively influencing the global semiconductors market. In 2022, devices were the world's 33rd most traded product, with an overall trade of USD 87.7 billion. Between 2021 and 2022 photovoltaic/photosensitive/LED semiconductor grew by 21.9%, from USD 72B to USD 87.7B, representing 0.37% of total world trade.

Yearly growth of Photovoltaic & LED Semiconductor Devices global trade

Source: OEC

Photovoltaic/LED Semiconductor Devices Global Trade

Source: OEC

Photovoltaic End of Life (EOL)

Rising focus on decarbonizing electricity grids has proportionately ramped up solar energy generation and storage capacities across the world. For context, to meet decarbonization goals, the U.S. must install 30 GWac every year from 2025 to 2030. 19 GW of solar capacity was installed in 2021 and the cumulative capacity has reached 100 GW in the U.S. This signifies that installation of new systems is likely to surge at a steep rate in the forthcoming years.

While the lifespan of a PV system is about 25-35 years, some system components including modules are already entering the waste stream. Moreover, modules reach end-of-life owing to weather damage, manufacturing serial defects, or installation errors. Yearly PV module EOL volume reach up to 12% of the annual municipal electronic waste in the United States by the end of 2050. 99% of PV module materials are non-hazardous and 95% are fully recyclable with available technologies. This sets a robust foundation for low-impact and safe EOL material handling methods. Presently, EOL handling processes are unfavorable to recycling. PV modules recycling cost to waste generators is $15-$45 per module, which is significantly higher than the landfill fee of $1-$5 for each module. This in turn is likely to impact federal and state policies on how waste is processed.

Source: IRENA

Action Plan Coverage

In June 2021, the Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) issued an RFI to solicit feedback from the PV waste management communities regarding key challenges in EOL processing. The responses, expert interviews, and literature reviews were used to identify potential research areas to streamline and optimize PV EOL practices. Responses emphasized the role of policy in EOL handling and developing separation technologies to enhance materials recovery.

With stakeholder input on prevalent challenges in hardware design, data collection and analysis, and identifying DOE’s role in EOL management, SETO, in 2021 rolled out a five year action plan.

The 2021 multi-year program plan was established based on the 2021 PV EOL workshop and RFI feedback. It focuses on the following enablers of a circular economy:

• Data gathering & analysis: Based on modeled waste volume and handling, the need for realistic collection, sorting, transportation, and materials reclamation is evident. SETO aims to establish a standalone database with 10 MW of PV EOL data collected by the end of 2025 and implement comprehensive data standards. Furthermore, non-confidential data will be made publicly accessible to the waste management, solar, and policy communities.
• Hardware development & process research: SETO emphasizes improving the raw materials and energy usage efficiency to, in turn, minimize the resources required to process EOL materials and extend component lifespan. It recommends steel, Cu, and Al be sold to scrap metal markets at EOL. However, recovering silver from the metallization and separating polymers and composites including back sheets are some of the areas, where materials recovery may be challenging. Research into enhancing the recovery rate, while minimizing the recovery cost burden is expected to help shift the economics of solar PV recycling.