Refrigeration Oil Market Outlook:
Refrigeration Oil Market size was estimated at USD 1.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 2.1 billion by the end of 2034, rising at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period, i.e., 2025-2034. In 2025, the industry size of refrigeration oil is estimated at USD 1.7 billion.
The primary driver of growth in the market is the continued growth of refrigeration systems in food storage, cold chain logistics, and healthcare applications. Additionally, R&D spending from government agencies and industry consortia is focused on developing high-performance, low-toxicity oils. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Producer Price Index for processed goods, which includes specialty refrigeration lubricants, rose by 0.5% in May 2025, while the price of untreated goods declined by 1.7%. As an index, this suggests a stable but gradual upward pricing trend that allows for return on investment.
The raw materials supply chain highlighted by petrochemicals, including ethane feedstock, continues to develop. The estimate for U.S. ethane exports in 2023 is projected at 21.7 MT, an 18% increase year over year, reflecting domestic oil expandability. Manufacturers have expanded refining capacity, supported by a 4.9 percent increase in industrial output for motor vehicles and parts, which broadly indicates the expansion of the overall capacity base. EPA estimates indicate annual imports of 18 million mt COâ‚‚e of HFC refrigerants (pre-charged equipment), considering finished goods traded as well as oils as commodities. As/if the ripple effect of general price stabilization of ENERGY consumer prices (including petroleum) persisted in the early months of 2025, there is no CPI in the public domain for refrigeration oils.
